Paris climate deal: Trump's 'withdrawal' could take until next US election

We’re sorry, this feature is currently unavailable. We’re working to restore it. Please try again later.

Advertisement

This was published 6 years ago

Paris climate deal: Trump's 'withdrawal' could take until next US election

By Paul McGeough
Updated

Washington: Donald Trump's decision to pull the United States out of the Paris accord guarantees that climate change likely will be a central issue when he faces re-election in 2020.

That is because it will take that long to execute the American withdrawal from the landmark global pact by which all but a few nations are tackling the global warming crisis.

Hailed by senior Republicans and booed by big names in corporate America and in the environmental movement, Trump chose a carnival atmosphere for his announcement – even summoning a brass band to the Rose Garden at the White House.

The decision amounts to a diplomatic thunderclap, raising questions about global leadership on a crisis that science and much of corporate America says is real; and prompting speculation about the willingness of other countries to keep their carbon emission pledges when Washington is walking away from its volunteered commitments.

US President Donald Trump turns to leave after announcing the US would withdraw from the Paris climate accord.

US President Donald Trump turns to leave after announcing the US would withdraw from the Paris climate accord.Credit: Bloomberg

But Trump did have a bob each way – in walking away from the deal struck by his predecessor, he greatly pleased his base supporters. But if that was the headline news, he threw in a rider.

"We're getting out, but we will start to negotiate and we will see if we can make a deal that's fair. If we can, that's great. If we can't, that's fine ... we'll begin negotiations to re-enter either the Paris accord or an entirely new transaction, on terms that are fair to the US, its businesses, its workers, its people, its taxpayers."

In keeping with his recurring theme that other countries have been taking advantage of the US, Trump said: "The rest of the world applauded when we signed the Paris Agreement. They went wild. They were so happy. For the simple reason that it put our country, the United States of America, which we all love, at a very, very big economic disadvantage."

Claiming his decision would save the US from a "draconian financial" impact and punishing "onerous energy restrictions", Trump argued that 2.7 million jobs would have been lost to the accord by 2025, citing a study that is challenged by environmental groups and some economists. The deal, he insisted, put the United States at a "permanent disadvantage" with China and India, among others.

Advertisement
President Donald Trump went on a lengthy Twitter tirade on Monday morning.

President Donald Trump went on a lengthy Twitter tirade on Monday morning.Credit: AP

More than 190 nations signed the accord in December 2015 and, since then, 147 governments – who account for more than 80 per cent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions – have formally ratified it. Global corporations, such as energy giants Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil and BP, also have thrown their support behind the accord.

But as a president who likes to act on the stroke of a pen, Trump will have to be patient. The accord bars any country from backing out in the first three years, after which they are required to give one year's notice – a process that would see Trump formalising the US exit from the accord on the eve of the next presidential election.

Thumbs up: Steve Bannon, Trump's chief strategist.

Thumbs up: Steve Bannon, Trump's chief strategist.Credit: Bloomberg

Alternatively, Trump could compress that timeline to 12 months by withdrawing the US from the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which provides the diplomatic architecture for the Paris Accord. But that might prove politically awkward – it was a treaty signed not by Obama, but by Republican President George H.W. Bush and which was ratified with a big, bipartisan vote in the Senate.

David Doniger, director of the climate program at the Natural Resources Defence Council, told The Washington Post: "Trump is underestimating the political and diplomatic blowback – the business community is against withdrawal. A majority of Americans are against withdrawal. If Trump sticks his finger in every other foreign leaders' eye on Paris, who will lift a finger for him when he wants something from them? On top of the recent trip, Trump will have squandered more US influence and power in two weeks than any other president."

Trump chose a carnival atmosphere for his announcement in the Rose Garden of the White House.

Trump chose a carnival atmosphere for his announcement in the Rose Garden of the White House.Credit: AP

The decision was billed as a victory for Trump's strategist Stephen Bannon and his factional warriors in the administration. And a stinging loss for the moderates – including National Economic Council director Gary Cohn; first daughter Ivanka Trump, who argued that Trump could have undone Obama's environment regulations without quitting the accord. It is a move Doniger predicts would significantly damage US relations with the rest of the world.

Obama emerged from his post-presidential purdah with a scathing condemnation. In a statement, he said: "The nations that remain in the Paris Agreement will be the nations that reap the benefits in jobs and industries created.

Members of Trump's cabinet applaud as Trump announces his decision on the climate accord.

Members of Trump's cabinet applaud as Trump announces his decision on the climate accord.Credit: Bloomberg

"I believe the United States of America should be at the front of the pack. But even in the absence of American leadership; even as this administration joins a small handful of nations that reject the future; I'm confident that our states, cities, and businesses will step up and do even more to lead the way, and help protect for future generations the one planet we've got."

Despite the angst in the White House, the decision was hardly a surprise. Trump's declaration that climate change was a hoax invented by the Chinese and his claim that the deal was bad for the US economically were rallying calls throughout his election campaign.

Protesters gather outside the White House in Washington on Thursday.

Protesters gather outside the White House in Washington on Thursday.Credit: AP

But in holding to his campaign promise, Trump has added the US to a small, exclusive global alliance – Syria and Nicaragua are the only other nations that rejected the climate pact.

At the same time, actually keeping a campaign promise is a stark departure from Trump's practice of reneging on them, especially those that deal with foreign policy.

Trump's big climate decision overshadowed further stalling on his promise to shift the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem – he announced a six-month deferral.

The climate decision is in keeping with Trump's strongman boasts about upending the world order.

But just as he seems to have cold feet on the embassy decision, he has also done a turnaround on promises to declare China a currency manipulator and lift sanctions on Russia; and on his claims that NATO was "obsolete".

Seemingly Trump has decided he can live with the Iran nuclear deal; and he enthusiastically launched a missile strike on Syria after long saying that he would not be that kind of president.

Introducing Trump to a cheering, stage-managed crowd of administration figures and their staff, Vice President Mike Pence said: "Our President is choosing to put American jobs and American consumers first. Our President is choosing to put American energy and American industry first. And by his action today, President Trump is choosing to put the forgotten men and women first."

In a memo to supporters in the hours before Thursday's announcement, the White House declared: "The Paris accord is a BAD deal for Americans, and the President's action today is keeping his campaign promise to put American workers first – the accord was negotiated poorly by the Obama administration and signed out of desperation."

Activist billionaire Tom Steyer had a very different take. "If Donald Trump pulls the US out of the Paris Agreement he will be committing a traitorous act of war against the American people. Trump has abdicated American leadership and sent a clear message to both our allies and enemies alike. In the search for courageous and moral solutions to the challenges of the 21st century, don't count on America to lead."

Greenpeace USA executive director Annie Leonard piled on: "This is disgraceful. By withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, the Trump administration has turned America from a global climate leader into a global climate deadbeat".

Centre for Biological Diversity executive director Kieran Suckling also weighed in. "Trump just confirmed his total contempt for our planet's future," he said condemning "this reckless rejection of international climate co-operation" that was "turning our country into a rogue nation".

Gina McCarthy, who was Obama's EPA administrator when the Paris Agreement was negotiated, was bamboozled by Trump's decision.

"This decision makes zero sense from a public health or an economic perspective. It's contrary to science and his obligation to protect America's kids and future generations. It's contrary to investors and CEOs saying we need to lean in on climate action, not bury our heads in the sand. And it's contrary to ... the vast majority of Americans calling for our country to do more."

General Electric boss Jeff Immelt tweeted that he was "disappointed with today's decision on the Paris Agreement. Climate change is real. Industry must now lead and not depend on government".

Loading

But Trump would have none of that.

"It is time to put Youngstown, Ohio; Detroit, Michigan; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, along with many, many other locations within our great country before Paris, France," he said. "It is time to make America great again."

Most Viewed in World

Loading