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A 'Two-Speed Europe' Is Preventing Action On Climate Change

This article is more than 4 years old.

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Over the past months, the school strikes for climate and extinction rebellion protests demanding government action on climate change have rocked Western European capitals like London, Brussels, Stockholm, Paris and Berlin.

But where they have been less perceptible is Eastern Europe, or indeed, in the world’s two biggest emitters – the U.S. and China.

According to an assessment of the EU's national energy and climate plans published today by the European Commission, the protesters' focus on these Western capitals may be misplaced. They are ranked near the top of the league in Europe for national policies to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. It is the country's in the EU's east, which have not seen the same large-scale climate protests, that are deemed to be not anywhere near on track to meet these goals.

All of the EU’s 11 Central and Eastern European countries received an ambition rating of “very low” to “modest” at the most. Countries like Sweden, Belgium, France and the UK are ranked far higher in the ambition of their policies. More importantly, they are pushing for the EU to adopt ambitious climate policies as a bloc, while countries in the East are blocking these efforts.

“Central and Eastern European countries must create solid plans through meaningful public participation and by exploring every possibility to fund a more just energy transition,” says Raphael Hanoteaux, EU policy coordinator with the environmental NGO Bankwatch. “A surge in ambition is in their interest and absolutely necessary if the EU wants to achieve the 2050 net-zero objective that is awaiting approval at Thursday’s European Council.”

Climate campaigners say the national action plans are being hindered across the board by the lack of a long-term EU emissions reduction target. Last year the European Commission put forward a proposal to reduce the EU’s emissions to net zero by 2050. This means emissions would be reduced to almost nothing, with any amount remaining to be made up for by abatement measures such as planting forests to pull carbon out of the atmosphere, and instituting carbon capture and storage facilities that would store carbon emissions from power plants underground.

But this proposal has been held up in the European Council of 28 national governments because of opposition by a bloc of Eastern member states led by Poland. A summit of national leaders in Brussels on Thursday will be the last opportunity for the EU to adopt the 2050 target before a global UN climate summit in September where countries are meant to update their emissions reduction pledges.

CAN Europe

Thursday's climate battle

Over the past week, a raft of big EU countries have ended their equivocation and come out in favor of the proposal, including Germany, Italy and the UK. Even some of Warsaw’s usual anti-climate-action allies such as Slovakia and Hungary have today reversed course and signalled they will support the proposal, prompting speculation that it may finally be adopted this week. But Poland, Czechia, Lithuania and Croatia are still in opposition. Because a proposal like this needs to be adopted by consensus, these governments will need to be convinced in order for it to pass.

The persistent climate action blocking from Warsaw and its Eastern allies has frustrated climate campaigners in Eastern Europe. “Our leaders in Eastern Europe are still protecting the profits of the fossil industry instead of protecting our future and our lives,” said Petr Doubravský, 17-year-old climate activist and Fridays for Future Czech Republic co-spokeperson, at a press briefing this week. “So far they have dismissed the pleas of our generation who will suffer most because of climate change. We are determined to continue striking until they listen and act.”

Part of the problem may be that citizens in many of these countries are preoccupied with endemic corruption and rule of law issues. Massive anti-government protests have been seen recently in Poland, Czechia and Romania against the governments there. Climate concerns may have taken a back seat in these countries, which have been undergoing a democratic transition for 25 years and in some cases are backsliding back into authoritarianism.

There is also a recognition that these economies are less developed than in Western EU countries, and more reliant on coal, and therefor it is not as easy for them to take bold action on fighting climate change.

But Wendel Trio, Director of the environmental NGO Climate Action Network Europe, says that today’s shift from Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria shows that even the smaller climate protests in Eastern Europe are having an effect. "With three new CEE countries on board, we are one giant leap closer to an agreement on achieving net zero emissions by 2050 at this week’s European Council,” he says. “Poland is losing its traditional allies from the Visegrad group and is at the moment the only country still advocating for postponing the decision.”

However there will be further battles to fight even if the 2050 target is adopted on Thursday, and on these the Eastern bloc is still fairly unified against increased ambition. “The next crucial step will be to agree on a plan to substantially increase the EU’s 2030 targets, as it is emission cuts by 2030 that will make or break the EU’s response to the climate crisis,” says Trio.

Insufficient national action

The battles aren’t only being fought in the European Council. The European Commission is looking for national governments to increase their emissions reduction efforts. But this will be a hard ask from Eastern governments wary of harming economic growth.

According to the Commission, the EU is on track to fall short of its 32% by 2030 renewable energy deployment target by 1.6 percentage points, and energy efficiency measures are on track to leave 6.2 percentage point gap to reaching a 32.5% benchmark.

“Last November we proposed that the European Union should become climate neutral by 2050,” said EU Climate Commissioner Arias Cañete at a press conference today. “It is good to see that a growing number of member states are following our lead and working towards that goal. Having evaluated Member States draft national plans, I am positive about the significant efforts that have been made. However, in the final plans even more ambition is needed to set the EU on the right track in fighting climate change and modernising our economy.”

EU countries are required to establish 10-year national energy and climate plans for the period from 2021 to 2030 showing how they will meet the Paris Agreement Goals. Today’s assessment by the Commission is only a mid-way check. The national governments now have six months to raise their national level of ambition. EU law requires them to take account of today’s recommendations or make public their reasons not to. They are also required to involve the public in the preparation of their final plans by the end of the year.

For climate campaigners looking to put pressure on both national governments and the EU to increase action on climate change in the coming year, the better focus for their protests is likely to be cities like Warsaw, Prague, Bucharest and Budapest. But this will require getting citizens there as engaged on the issue as they are in Western capitals. So far, this has proven to be a challenge.